Posted by: sean | June 10, 2009

Turnout by sect

Lebanon Sectarian MapI don’t usually post or comment on stuff from l’Orient le Jour, but this write-up of the elections is actually pretty balanced. More importantly, it includes an unsourced paragraph that really caught my eye, a sectarian breakdown of the returns:

Selon les chiffres récoltés auprès de divers instituts de sondages : le Courant du futur a consolidé son emprise sur la communauté sunnite avec une mobilisation extraordinaire. En gros, il a ainsi récolté 75 % des suffrages de la communauté, avec des pics de 85 % dans les circonscriptions de Beyrouth et même à Zahlé. Ainsi, Oussama Saad, dont la famille et le courant sont implantés à Saïda depuis des lustres, n’a atteint que 27 % des voix sunnites, l’ancien Premier ministre Omar Karamé a obtenu 26 % à Tripoli, Jihad Samad à Denniyé a obtenu 21 % et Abdel Rahim Mrad a pu atteindre les 28 % dans la Békaa-Ouest. Les druzes ont donné 68 % de leurs suffrages à Walid Joumblatt, laissant à peu près 25 % à ses rivaux. Le Hezbollah a lui aussi augmenté ses scores au sein de la communauté chiite. Il a obtenu, avec son allié le mouvement Amal près de 90 % des voix chiites, avec des pics de 92 % à Baalbeck-Hermel, à Nabatiyé et même à Jbeil (90 %).

According to the figures collected by various polling institutes, the Future Movement consolidated its hold on the Sunni community with an extraordinary mobilization. They got roughly 75% of the community’s votes, with peaks of 85% in Beirut and even in Zahle. Thus Osama Saad, whose family and movement have been in Saida since forever, only got 27% of Sunni votes; former Prime Minister Omar Karame got 26% in Tripoli; Jihad Samad in Denniye got 21%; and Abdel Rahim Mrad managed 28% in West Bekaa. The Druze gave 68% of their votes to Walid Jumblatt, leaving 25% to his rivals. Hezbollah also increased their scores within the Shi’a community, together with its ally Amal getting nearly 90% of Shi’a votes, with peaks of 92% in Balbaak-Hermel, in Nabatiye and even in Jbeil (90%).

These numbers seem about right to me, although I’d expect Jumblatt’s percentage to be a little higher. That said, I’d like to have a source to match with these figures, and I’d like a breakdown of the Christian vote, which the article  doesn’t provide. Here in Lebanon, counting votes is a tricky endeavor, because there are different implications depending on whether you’re looking at the parliamentary results, the popular results or the sectarian results. If anyone gets some more concrete (and sourced!) information on thet sectarian breakdown, please send it my way.



  1. These figures almost match those reported by Ibrahim Al Amin in Al Akhba on June 9.

    The statistics about the christian vote are not out, at least I didn’t come across a detailed one yet.

  2. Yeah, everyone seems to be using more or less the same stats, but I haven’t had the time to sit down and really look at the numbers, because it’s obviously not like a straight presidential election, so it’s complicated to figure out exactly who voted for whom.

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